The Affordability Problem

The same house. Twice the income.

$122,131the hurdle today — the income a lender asks for the typical American home · $51,557 in October 2019 · 7.28%, October 2026

The house did not change. The price went up and the rate went up, and a mortgage payment carries both — so the payment went from $1,203 to $2,850 a month and the hurdle rose 137%, while pay rose 34%.

Built 2 October 2026 from the data in the numbers page, which lists every series and its code.

Where it stands today

The income a household needs to buy the typical American home, against what people are paid, both set to 100 in October 2019. It updates with every weekly rate print.

The GapIncome needed to buy the same house, against what people earn. Both = 100 in October 2019
Income needed to qualify237Median pay, full-time134Oct 2026
100 150 200 250 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 237 income needed 134 pay 1001502002502020202220242026237income needed134pay

Case-Shiller, Freddie Mac, Census/HUD and BLS · CSUSHPINSA, MORTGAGE30US, MSPUS, LEU0252881500Q · the income line is computed, not published — see the method. It ends on today’s figure: the latest Case-Shiller month (July 2026) at the 1 October 2026 mortgage rate. Pay is quarterly and ends at the latest quarter BLS has published.

Film one · 8:35

The whole story in eight and a half minutes

Where the new money came from, why the fastest rate rise in forty years froze the market, and why the price and the rate multiply instead of adding.

Watch the filmEvery number, with sources →

The ledger

Every figure behind the page above, one frame at a time. Fixed is a closed month, a record or an estimate, and cannot move. Now is the latest print of the series, with the date it is true as of.

The claim

The same house. Twice the income.What you must earn to qualify for the typical American homeIN 2019$51,557TODAY$122,131+137%the hurdle+34%your payTHAT’S NOT A FEELING. THAT’S A FACT.Same house · 20% down, 28% of gross · Case-Shiller + MORTGAGE30US + BLS via FRED

Fixed

Income needed, 2019
$51,557October 2019

Now

Income needed today
$122,131CSUSHPINSA + MORTGAGE30US, at 7.28% · October 2026

The 2019 leg is closed and cannot move. The right leg re-indexes the same house to the latest Case-Shiller and re-prices it at the latest weekly survey.

Act I — the flood

ACT I · THE FLOODThen it jumped$14T$16T$18T$20T$22T$24T20182020202220242026+$6.2TTODAY$23 TRILLIONIN 24 MONTHS+40%FOR SCALEGermanyits entire economyM2, seasonally adjusted · Board of Governors via FRED

Fixed

Money supply added, Feb 2020 – Feb 2022
$6,232.8BFebruary 2022
— as a percentage
+40.2%February 2022

Now

Money supply now
$23.34TM2SL · August 2026 · monthly; September is not published yet
Against February 2020
+50.7%M2SL, against February 2020 · August 2026 · monthly; September is not published yet
ACT I · THE FLOODNothing else comes close2020 – 2022+40.2%1975 – 1977+28.8%1971 – 1973+28.0%1976 – 1978+24.6%1981 – 1983+21.9%THE LARGEST TWO-YEAR INCREASE SINCE 1959M2, seasonally adjusted · every 24-month window since 1959 · via FRED

Fixed

Largest 24-month increase
+40.2%series begins 1959
Previous record
+28.8%1975 – 1977

Now

Largest window today
+40.3%largest window, 2020-01 to 2022-01 · August 2026
Largest outside 2020–2022
+28.8%largest outside 2020–2022, 1975-02 to 1977-02 · August 2026

Recomputed across every 24-month window in the series on each build, rather than asserted. The film quotes February 2020 to February 2022 because that is the shutdown it narrates; the largest window by a tenth of a point is January to January, inside the same episode. The line that carries the claim is the second one — the best window that is not part of this episode at all. If the record is ever displaced, that is where it shows first.

ACT I · THE FLOODThen prices caught up0%2%4%6%8%10%201920202021202220239.1%June 2022THE FED DECIDED PRICES HAD RISEN TOO FAR.Consumer Price Index, 12-month change, not seasonally adjusted · BLS via FRED

Fixed

Peak 12-month change
+9.06%June 2022

Now

12-month change now
+3.4%CPIAUCNS, 12-month change · August 2026 · monthly; September is not published yet

Act II — the freeze

ACT II · THE FREEZESo the Fed did something dramatic0%2%4%6%201920202021202220232024202520260.08%5.33%16 MONTHSTHE FASTEST INCREASE IN OVER FORTY YEARS.Effective federal funds rate, monthly · Federal Reserve H.15 via FRED

Fixed

Fed funds, before → peak
0.08% → 5.33%Feb 2022 / Aug 2023

Now

Fed funds now
3.63%FEDFUNDS · August 2026 · monthly; September is not published yet

This is the station the film got overtaken on. The Fed raised on 16 September 2026, which ended the hold the film describes. The frame is left exactly as it was cut, and the live figure says which month it is for rather than pretending to be today. The rate that moved first, and by more, is the mortgage two stations down.

ACT II · THE FREEZEAnd the mortgage followed it upOCTOBER 20193.69%OCTOBER 20237.79%Every house in America repriced at the same time.WE CALL THIS THE FREEZE.30-year fixed, Freddie Mac weekly survey · MORTGAGE30US via FRED

Fixed

October 2019
3.69%monthly average
Peak
7.79%week of 26 October 2023

Now

The weekly survey now
7.28%MORTGAGE30US · October 2026

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which is what every rate in the film is built on. Daily lender trackers are a different measure and run higher.

ACT II · THE FREEZEThey don’t add together. They multiply.The monthly payment on the same house · $1,203 in October 2019+59%PRICE ONLY$1,914+49%RATE ONLY$1,790+108%ADD THEM$2,502+137%BOTH$2,8501.59 × 1.49 = 2.37 — they multiplyADDING THEM IS THE MISTAKE.P&I, same house, 20% down · CSUSHPINSA + MORTGAGE30US via FRED

Now

Price alone
+59%CSUSHPINSA · July 2026 · monthly; August is not published yet
Rate alone
+49%MORTGAGE30US · October 2026
Adding them — the mistake
+108%the mistake: the two added, not multiplied · October 2026
Both, multiplied
+137%(1.592 x 1.489) - 1 · October 2026

The struck-through bar is the arithmetic mistake the beat is about: the two effects are multiplied by a mortgage payment, not added. All four move together with the rate, so all four are live.

ACT II · THE FREEZEAlmost 80% of full-time workers can’t qualifyEarning enough to qualify for the typical homeIN 201947%about 1 in 2the hurdle · $51,557 a yearTODAY21%about 1 in 5the hurdle · $122,131 a yearTHE SAME HOUSE. FOUR IN FIVE FALL SHORT.One full-time earner, not a household · 20% down · BLS + Case-Shiller via FRED

Fixed

Qualified in 2019
47%Q4 2019
Qualify today
about 21%Q2 2026

Now

Nothing here moves — see below.

No live line here on purpose. The 21% is measured against the film's hurdle of $113,840 (the 6.65% rate of August), which is the figure printed on this frame; it is not today's hurdle at the top of the page. The share at today's hurdle needs the distribution of full-time earnings, not the median, and this generator only holds the series the film's other figures are built from. It is checked in verify.py rather than estimated here.

ACT II · THE FREEZEYour gut was rightWhat a dollar buys, measured against a mortgage paymentIN 2019$1.00TODAY42¢the same dollar, against today’s paymentA DOLLAR BUYS LESS THAN HALF WHAT IT DID.Qualifying payment on the same house, 2019 against today · 1 ÷ 2.369

Now

The same dollar now
42¢2019 payment / today's payment · October 2026

Act III — who it hits

ACT III · THE AFFORDABILITY PROBLEMAnd the down payment moved tooTwenty percent down on that same houseIN 2019$65,420TODAY$104,124+19%pay, to catch upEVEN IF YOU SAVE IT, YOU STILL HAVE TO QUALIFY.20% of the same house · each note is $20,000 · the pay gap is 1.592 ÷ 1.337

Fixed

Twenty percent down, 2019
$65,420October 2019

Now

Twenty percent down today
$104,12420% of the same house · July 2026 · monthly; August is not published yet
ACT III · THE AFFORDABILITY PROBLEMOne more bedroom, two ways to get itThey qualified on $50,000. The bigger house needs $170,492.$1,167TODAYthey pay now$2,122BUILD THE ROOM+82% a month$3,978MOVE+241% a monthTHE 3.16% STAYS EXACTLY WHERE IT IS.P&I at 3.16% on their 2020 house; the move at 7.28%; the room on $100,000 at 8% over 15 years

Fixed

Building the room costs
+82% a month$100,000 at 8%, 15 years

Now

Moving costs now
+241%the same bigger house, at 7.28% · October 2026

Building the room does not move with the mortgage rate — that is the point of the beat, and it is why only one of these two lines has a live figure.

ACT III · THE AFFORDABILITY PROBLEMA smaller house costs moreThe same owner, moving to a house ten percent smallerTHE HOUSE THEY HAVE$1,203TEN PERCENT SMALLER$2,565+113% a monthNO ONE PAYS MORE TO GET LESS.P&I only · holding 3.69% today against buying at 7.28%, 20% down

Now

The same move now
+113%ten percent smaller, at 7.28% · October 2026
ACT III · THE AFFORDABILITY PROBLEMThe same house, rentedWhat that house costs every month, owned and rented$2,850$900tax, insurance, upkeepthe mortgage$2,100$3,750OWN ITRENT ITMORE THAN FORTY PERCENT LESS.P&I plus tax, insurance and upkeep · national median asking rent, 3-bed single-family

Fixed

Tax, insurance, upkeep
$900the film's estimate, not a series
Rented
$2,100national median asking, 3-bed single-family

Now

The mortgage alone
$2,850P&I, 20% down, at 7.28% · October 2026
Owned, all in
$3,750P&I at 7.28% plus $900 estimated · October 2026

Two of these are estimates and stay where they are. Tax, insurance and upkeep is a round number the film states as one. The rent is a median on a basis this site does not hold a series for — Zillow's index covers all homes, not three-bedroom houses, so it would be a different measurement wearing the same label.

ACT III · THE AFFORDABILITY PROBLEMHomes for sale in America562,453MARCH 20231,126,252TODAY2×IT HAS DOUBLED.Active listings, all US · Realtor.com via FRED (ACTLISCOUUS)

Fixed

Bottom of the freeze
562,453March 2023

Now

Active listings now
1,140,035ACTLISCOUUS · August 2026 · monthly; September is not published yet

The film is a point in time. This page is not.

The film was cut on 1 September 2026 and every figure in it was true that day. Some of them are still true — a closed month does not reopen, and a record stands until something beats it. Others came from series that have printed again since: Case-Shiller restates and extends, the mortgage survey prints every Thursday, the Fed moves.

This page shows the latest print, in the numbers and in the pictures, which are redrawn from the same data on every build. It does not show you the film's older figure beside it and ask you to work out which one to believe. The numbers page holds the film's figures as they were cut, for anyone who wants the record of what it said and when.

Found something that does not add up? Say so in the comments on the film, and cite the series. Corrections get published on the numbers page, with the date.